“Boom Or Bust For The Economy & Markets” – JPM Previews The Next 100 Days For …

boom or bust for the economy markets jpm previews the next 100 days for biden

Sumary of “Boom Or Bust For The Economy & Markets” – JPM Previews The Next 100 Days For Biden:

  • Morgan Virtual Investor Seminar at the time of the 2021 IMF/WB Spring Meetings featuring external speakers and J.P..
  • Morgan Policy Center, Federal Government Relations and Global Research team to discuss the priorities for the Biden administration for the next 100 days and the macro and market implications..
  • What follows is a summary of the top 10 takeaways of the ideas presented during the seminar by JPMorgan analysts, strategists and economists, as summarized by JPM itself..
  • Morgan Economics Research team estimates US growth will reach 9.5% in 2Q and 8.3% in 3Q before trending down to 6.3% for the year as a whole..
  • Morgan Economics Research team sees the US unemployment rate reaching 4.5% by year end which is vastly different to a similar point after the GFC where US unemployment was around 9.5%..
  • A synchronized recovery could have meant a likely overshooting of US treasury yields which would have negative implications for valuations of risky asset classes, specifically for equity multiples..
  • Positioning in risky assets remains below average in a historical context as markets are coming off a record year in market volatility with the VIX recording its highest level in March 2020 that caused broad de-risking across markets..
  • Morgan Equity Strategy Research team expects volatility to decline this year which will contribute to systematic investors’ overall positioning moving higher not just in equity but in other risky assets such as commodities and emerging markets..
  • While there is a lot of talk about asset bubbles, it is hard to see one in the broad equity market, but certain segments that have more than tripled in price over a short period of time are likely experiencing bubbles, such as innovative ESG sectors like clean energy, solar energy and Electric Vehicles, along with crypto assets and SPACs..
  • The implications of this ruling could mean that Democrats could try and pass much of the infrastructure bill, especially the parts pertaining to social equity, through budget reconciliation..
  • Speakers cautioned that the US corporate tax rate needs to remain globally competitive and that the relative rate is what matters….

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