Sumary of Erratic monsoon may hamper agri harvest, increase prices:
- “We expect cotton, oil seeds and coarse cereals to be most impacted due to erratic rains,” said Rahul Bajoria, chief India economist at Barclays.
- “In the last two-three years, monsoons have been problematic not in its overall quantum of rain, but in terms of its spatial distribution.
- Crisil Research expects erratic monsoons across the country may lead to increase in onion prices.
- Few states such as Gujarat, Kerala, Odisha and Assam are likely to face more challenges due to low irrigation coverage and a high rain deficit but South India, excluding Kerala, has seen above-normal rainfall, said Arshad Perwez, strategy research—vice president, JM Financial Institutional Securities.
- Bajra saw a 8% fall in sowing area due to deficit rains, followed by groundnut where the sowing area fell 4% from the year earlier due to erratic rains in Western India.
- Perwez expects prices of proteins such as pulses, egg and meat to remain high driven by steady demand and increase in input prices and supply challenges.